WASHINGTON – Job losses during the Great Recession have been huge and they're about to get bigger.
When the Labor Department releases the January unemployment report Friday, it will also update its estimate of jobs lost in the year that ended in March 2009. The number is expected to rise by roughly 800,000, raising the number of jobs shed during the recession to around 8 million.
The new data will help illustrate the scope of the jobs crisis. Analysts think the economy might generate 1 million to 2 million jobs this year. And they say it will take at least three to four years for the job market to return to anything like normal.
"It's going to take a long time to dig out of this hole," said Julia Coronado, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.
Wall Street economists expect the January report will show a tiny increase of 5,000 jobs. That would be only the second monthly gain since the recession began. But it probably wouldn't be enough to hold down the unemployment rate, which is forecast to rise to 10.1 percent. That would match October's 26-year high. And it would be the fourth-straight month of double-digit joblessness.
The Labor Department's revisions on employment levels are done every year. They are based on unemployment insurance tax data that companies submit to states.
Jobs remain scarce even as the economy is recovering: Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's output, has risen for two straight quarters. GDP rose by 5.7 percent in the October-December quarter, the fastest pace in six years.
But hiring is still lagging. Many economists say businesses are reluctant to add workers because it's not clear whether the recovery will continue once government stimulus measures, such as tax credits for home buyers, end.
The debate over health care reform and the scheduled expiration of some Bush administration tax cuts at the end of this year may also cause companies to restrain hiring, many economists said.
"Until some of these uncertainties from Washington get cleared up, businesses, particularly small businesses, are going to be loath to do any additional hiring," said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Investments.
High unemployment is likely to hold back consumer spending, which has led most recoveries in the past. That's why many economists think the current rebound will be weak.
Public concern about persistent unemployment has forced President Barack Obama and members of Congress to shift their attention to jobs and the economy and away from health care reform. The Senate will begin working Monday on legislation that would give companies a tax break for hiring new workers, Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday.
The budget plan Obama released this week projects unemployment will still be very high — 9.8 percent — by the end of this year.
Instead of adding workers, many companies are squeezing their existing work forces to produce more. Productivity rose by a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department said Thursday, above analysts' expectations of a 6 percent rise. That was the third straight quarter of sharp gains.
Productivity often increases at the end of recessions as companies ramp up output before hiring new workers. Rising productivity can raise living standards in the long run. But it can also make it easier for companies to put off adding jobs.
A separate Labor Department report on initial claims for jobless benefits said claims rose unexpectedly last week by 8,000 to 480,000. The rise in claims was the fourth in the past five weeks. It disappointed economists, who thought claims would resume a downward trend evident in the fall and early winter. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, rose for the third straight week to 468,750.
Most economists say claims need to fall to about 425,000 or below for a month to signal that employers are stepping up hiring.
Still, some positive signs emerged in the productivity report. Hours worked in the fourth quarter rose 1 percent. That was the first increase since the second quarter of 2007. Output rose 7.2 percent, the largest increase since the third quarter of 2003.
To continue increasing production, economists say companies will eventually have to start adding jobs again. That should bring productivity gains back down toward their long-run average of about 2.5 percent.
"You can push your workers but so far," said Anika Khan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "At some point businesses have to begin to hire."
But the main question is when. The economy could begin generating net job gains as early as March, Khan said. But they won't be enough to hold down the unemployment rate. Wells Fargo expects the rate to peak at 10.5 percent in the second half of this year.

I know where thee is 36 million jobs for you here in the good old USA . OBAMA doesn't care if you need one . what shall we say about this . any thing ?

Actually he does, what are you getting at? By the way, the states most unlikely to get a job: Florida, CA, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and South Carolina. Twice as many states are ABOVE the national employment average than are below it. What say you now?

we're in a depression...the real unemployment rate [ The G-6 ]...is 17 1/2%...ouch !!

It was predicted that it would get worse before it gets better.

it's his policies that have destroyed the private sector...small businesses...aren't hiring because they just don't know what kind of burden Obamacare...Cap and Trade...his tax policy ...over regulation will have on their bottom lines...it's fuggin' scarey out their...

JMO but it seems to me that we are expected to hunker down while the politicians don't and they spend like crazy

I saw someone on TV last night explaining Obamas 3 step plan to bring jobs and the economy back...spend more...tax more and borrow more...

Things may be getting better, maybe...

"A surprising dip in the unemployment rate for January offers promise that the job market is finally stabilizing after a long, steep decline.

The latest employment data released Friday was not uniformly positive. The nation shed another 20,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said. But the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.7 percent, from 10 percent, is the strongest sign yet that the economy is now expanding quickly enough to begin making a dent in the vast ranks of the jobless.

"This is good news," said Gary Burtless, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "This isn't people dropping out of the labor force. It's a lot more people saying, 'Yeah, I have a job.'"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/05/AR2010020500396.html?wprss=rss_business

I don't see many Illegals going without work. Every winter, there was a steady flow of them coming back towing cars and trucks full of stuff to sell in Mexico.

In the spring, They'll go back to their jobs.

Business has been riding high on borrowed money and the stock market casino for years. Obama had nothing to do with it. And business is not paying the bills. The working class is.

here's Rush's explaination...most of the gains were in temporary census taking jobs...

Yeah, except the problem is it's not accurate. They did include the revised number of unemployed people up to eight million instead of seven, and they did include the first wave of Census Bureau hires -- and they're going to be hiring these workers all through June and they're gonna hire a million of them. So you're going to see the unemployment rate drop because of that, but keep in mind those Census jobs are temporary. They're going to lose their jobs when the Census work is over.

They did two tricks today in addition to what I just mentioned to you. In fact, Rick Santelli on CNBC this morning said that the level of manipulation on these numbers is intensifying. Without the move to remove how many jobs there are in the marketplace, he says the rate would be 10.6% for January, and let me explain what he means. He was specific on the Obama administration lowering how many jobs are even in the total marketplace. I think they took it from 136 million and changed it down to 129 million. So if there is a smaller universe of jobs, naturally you're going to have a lower percentage of those unemployed. They have been manipulating and doing everything they can to keep this number at or below 10%, but of course this is what's called the U3 number. The U6 number includes -- and this is the number that's around 17 or 18% -- people who have stopped looking, and that number continues to expand. These are the people whose unemployment compensation benefits have expired. So this 9.7% number... We'll wait for the revisions as we always do, and we'll pound the revisions to you when they come out. The State-Controlled Media will, of course, ignore them. But folks, it's just not what it seems to be. I really wish it were. I wish that I could wholeheartedly endorse this. But everybody was stunned by this. Not just the usual experts were surprised. Everybody, and I'm wondering...

When Americans can make a living wage for doing the illegal's work then we can address this. Let's see what is not paying...

How about the rich?..."20% of the people owned a remarkable 85%, leaving only 15% of the wealth for the bottom 80% "of the wealth"(a)..and I know it sounds "socialistic" to say this, but there has to be a slight levelling of wealth. The rolling back of the Dippic's tax cuts for the rich was a start but the top 20% can invest in America...help reform the economy...but they are hiding from even paying their fair share of taxes.

We see the corporations gaining power to allow them to outsource our skilled jobs, cut pay, avoid regulations. How about the Supreme Court (b) now allowing Big Corp to elect our officials?...JTC don't you people see what's happening? We've become a Corporate Socialist(c) country!....I do not understand how people can ignore this. Oh yeah, politics...gee wonder who's sponsoring THAT!?!

(a) http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
(b)http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/01/supreme_court_allows_corporate.html
(c)http://www.hinde.net/lee/blog/2008/01/corporate-socialism.html

Obama and the Democrats are working on jobs creation legislation to get America back to work. I think they will do the best they can with this.

A living wage to some is a wage that would keep themselves and their families from starving.

Those are the folks who could use the jobs the Illegals take.

All the way from field work to consulting jobs.

I heard today the recent dip in unemployment was due to unemployed people giving up on finding work.It was not on jobs created.The US Gov.does not count unemployed workers who give up finding work as unemployed.Only unemployed workers looking for work are considered unemployed if that makes any sense at all.

I don't have any problems finding a job

you want fries with that?

Jeeeeez, didn't anyone watch the State of the Union address?

Obama was handed an entire system as it was in the middle of crumbling. The bailout was already done. The bottom was unseen and the the direction was clearly downward. He wants to offer tax cuts for those who create and keep jobs in America. He wants to increase taxes for those who outsource jobs yet import the products being made to sell back to the Americans which would have had or lost their jobs as a result. That helps most Americans He is taking steps to alter the federal student loan programs in such a way that teachers get rewarded more appropriately.

The right wing garbage is illogical, unreasonable, and elitist for the most part. Selfish as can be.

Sources of the problems we face?

ONE.

We have the best government that money can buy.

Am I the only one who sees the necessary consequences of legally allowing bribery of government positions(campaign contributions)?




WAKE UP AMERICA!

Obamas 3 step plan to bring jobs and the economy back...spend more...tax more and borrow more...

Rhetorically brilliant.