Jonathan Chait
Obama vs. Palin
Jonathan Chait
Jonathan Chait
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&c What Spending Surge? Say It Ain't So July 15, 2010 | 1:23 pm 9 comments |MorePrint
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What Spending Surge?

Say It Ain't SoTime's new poll actually contains some pretty good news for President Obama:

Asked to assign blame for the balky economy, 61% point to the Bush Administration, while 27% fault Obama. The President notched a favorable 31%-26% split between voters who believe his economic policies have helped and those who think they hurt, while nearly 80% believe the economy is stable or heading in the right direction. And despite the economic upheaval and political acrimony that have marked his term thus far, voters aren't pining for Obama's predecessor; they tapped Obama over George W. Bush by a 53%-33% margin. Nor are they convinced that Sarah Palin is up to the challenges of the Oval Office. Obama clobbered Palin, 55%-34%, in a hypothetical 2012 matchup that should have Democrats salivating.
How long Obama can defy the laws of gravity is a real question. Palin might be unpopular, but if the job market hasn't improved much by this time in 2012 she'll be polling a lot higher than 34%.

Update: Of course, PPP has some completely different numbers:

Barack Obama's numbers in our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race are their worst ever this month. He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46. The only person tested he leads is Jan Brewer, who doesn't have particularly high name recognition on the national level at this point.


I have no idea how to explain such a vast discrepancy.


Dueling Polls http://www.blogrunner.com/snapshot/D/2/2/time_poll_voters_like_obama_not_his_policies/


AND MORE AMBIGUOUS POLLING INFO

The Washington Post has a new poll that largely agrees with our poll from last week. Public confidence in Barack Obama is at a low point.

But buried deep in the Post’s report is the surprising news that Mr. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent. Granted, “those who strongly disapprove now significantly outnumber those who strongly approve.” But Obama’s rating puts him in a similar position to Bill Clinton in 1994, and ahead of where Ronald Reagan was in 1982, when he too struggled with a severe recession.

Clinton’s Democrats and Reagan’s Republicans lost a bunch of seats, but both went on to easily win re-election two years later. The worse news for Obama is that voters seem to be prioritizing deficit reduction over further stimulus spending, which will make it hard for the president to do anything about that sticky unemployment rate



Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/07/17/2090208/do-the-latest-polls-bode-poorly.html#ixzz0vaqUbvtl

perhaps the pool of people they use to do these 'random' polls has something to do with it?

Polls show that 83% of all polling data are 50% made up on the spot.

thats probably the most accurate poll I have read,,,

I'm sure there is a lot of this in all polls too...





That looks so frikken tasty too!

But it does not belong in a proper statistical analysis.

OMG - THAT FUDGE LOOKS AWESOME - and the only chocolate I have in the house is ....... right here with me, I just ran and got it - a single serving cup of chocolate ice cream. It just doesn't taste as good as the picture looks. THANKS ALOT - I have to by chocolate tomorrow.

lets take a poll,, how many minglers believe REDY will be munching on chocolate tonight?,,lol