The extremists who harbored al Qaeda could get control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
By JOHN R. BOLTON
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124121967978578985.html

At his press conference Wednesday evening, President Barack Obama endorsed Pakistan's official position that it has secure control over its nuclear-weapons arsenal. Mr. Obama said he was "gravely concerned" about the situation there, but "confident that the nuclear arsenal will remain out of militant hands."

His words are not reassuring in light of the Taliban's military and political gains throughout Pakistan. Our security, and that of friends and allies world-wide, depends critically on preventing more adversaries, especially ones with otherworldly ideologies, from acquiring nuclear weapons. Unless there is swift, decisive action against the Islamic radicals there, Pakistan faces two very worrisome scenarios.

One scenario is that instability continues to grow, and that the radicals disrupt both Pakistan's weak democratic institutions and the military.

Often known as Pakistan's "steel skeleton" for holding the country together after successive corrupt or incompetent civilian governments, the military itself is now gravely threatened from within by rising pro-Taliban sentiment. In these circumstances -- especially if, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified recently, the nuclear arsenal has been dispersed around the country -- there is a tangible risk that several weapons could slip out of military control. Such weapons could then find their way to al Qaeda or other terrorists, with obvious global implications.

The second scenario is even more dangerous. Instability could cause the constitutional government to collapse entirely and the military to fragment. This could allow a well-organized, tightly disciplined group to seize control of the entire Pakistani government. While Taliban-like radicals might not have even a remote chance to prevail in free and fair elections, they could well take advantage of chaos to seize power. If that happened, a radical Islamicist regime in Pakistan would control a substantial nuclear weapons capacity.

Not only could this second scenario give international terrorists even greater access to Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, the risk of nuclear confrontation with India would also increase dramatically. Moreover, Iran would certainly further accelerate its own weapons program, followed inexorably by others in the region (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey) obtaining nuclear weapons, perhaps through direct purchase from Islamabad's new regime.

To prevent either scenario, Pakistan must move to the top of our strategic agenda, albeit closely related to Afghanistan. (Pashtuns on both sides of the border are the major source of Taliban manpower, although certainly not the only locus of radical support.) Contrary to Western "international nannies," the primary conflict motivators in both countries are ethnic and tribal loyalties, religious fanaticism and simple opportunism. It is not a case of the "have nots" rising against the "haves," but of True Believers on a divine mission. Accordingly, neither greater economic assistance, nor more civilian advisers upcountry, nor stronger democratic institutions will eliminate the strategic threat nearly soon enough.

We didn't get here overnight. We are reaping the consequences of failed nonproliferation policies that in the past penalized Pakistan for its nuclear program by cutting off military assistance and scaling back the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program that brought hundreds of Pakistani officers to the U.S. Globally, this extraordinarily successful program has bound generations of foreign military leaders to their U.S. counterparts. Past cut-offs with Pakistan have harmed our bilateral relationship. Perhaps inevitably, the Pakistani officers who haven't participated in IMET are increasingly subject to radical influences.

Moreover, the Bush administration, by pushing former President Pervez Musharraf into unwise elections and effectively removing him from power, simply exacerbated the instability within Pakistan's already frail system. Mr. Musharraf's performance against the terrorists left much to be desired, and he was no democrat. But removing him was unpleasantly reminiscent of the 1963 coup against South Vietnam's Diem regime, which ushered in a succession of ever-weaker, revolving-door governments, thus significantly facilitating the ultimate Communist takeover. Benazir Bhutto's assassination, while obviously unforeseen, was a direct consequence of our excessive electoral zeal.

To prevent catastrophe will require considerable American effort and unquestionably provoke resistance from many Pakistanis, often for widely differing reasons. We must strengthen pro-American elements in Pakistan's military so they can purge dangerous Islamicists from their ranks; roll back Taliban advances; and, together with our increased efforts in Afghanistan, decisively defeat the militants on either side of the border. This may mean stifling some of our democratic squeamishness and acquiescing in a Pakistani military takeover, if the civilian government melts before radical pressures. So be it.

Moreover, we must strive to keep Indo-Pakistani relations stable, if not friendly, and pressure Islamabad to put nuclear-weapons proliferator and father of Pakistan's nuclear program A.Q. Khan back under house arrest. At the same time, we should contemplate whether and how to extract as many nuclear weapons as possible from Pakistan, thus somewhat mitigating the consequences of regime collapse.

President Obama's talks next week in Washington with the presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan provide a clear opportunity to take the hard steps necessary to secure Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and defeat the Taliban. Failure to act decisively could well lead to strategic defeat in Pakistan.

Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad" (Simon & Schuster, 2007).

I don't care what the Taliban says anymore.

According to A. Q. Khan, as well as other Pakistani scientists, the devices tested in 1998 were most of all boosted weapon designs. Pakistan has not tested a true staged thermonuclear device. This implies that Pakistan can built pure fission or boosted fission devices with yields ranging from sub-kiloton up to perhaps 100 kt. Higher yields are possible, but suffer from the delivery weight limits of its existing missiles and probable limits to Pakistani miniaturization technology. China has provided a complete tested designs for a 25 kt pure fission weapon.

http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html

1 second after detonation

Within the first second, a shock wave with an overpressure of 20 psi (pounds per square inch) extends four-tenths of a mile from ground zero. This destroys the Empire State Building and all other buildings within that radius, including Madison Square Garden, Penn Station and the New York Public Library. The reinforced steel in the skyscrapers does nothing to support them. Everything within the first four-tenths of a mile from ground zero is reduced to a pile of debris hundreds of feet deep in places. No one in this area survives or even knows what happened to them. The blast kills somewhere between 75,000 and 100,000 people instantly. Those outside in direct line with the blast are vaporized from the heat. Those inside the buildings who survive the blast are killed as the buildings collapse.

A mushroom cloud and fireball expand upward. Instantly, all communications that depend on this area for broadcast stop. National television stations and hundreds of radio channels are instantly off the air. Cell phones throughout the region malfunction. New York City drops off the world communication map. It is not like 9-11, where the rest of the world could switch on their televisions and watch live what was happening.

4 seconds after detonation

The shock wave extends for at least a mile with an overpressure of 10 psi at the periphery of this radius. Out to the edge of this ring, all concrete and steel-reinforced commercial buildings are destroyed or so severely damaged that they begin to collapse. The few buildings at the edge of this ring that remain standing have their interiors destroyed. Many of those within still-standing buildings are protected enough to survive the initial blast but are killed by flying debris. As the shock wave spreads out, an additional 300,000 people are killed and 100,000 more are injured. Almost no one in this ring escapes injury. Those below ground in the subways will escape this first blast with few injuries, though the loss of electricity may shock the cars to a stop. Blocked exits may trap all subway passengers underground indefinitely.

All power in New York City goes out or experiences difficulty. Telephone service stops. There is no radio or television from New York City and no information passing to the outside world about the damage or casualties.

6 seconds after detonation

The shock wave expands to 1.5 miles from ground zero. The pressure at the edge of this ring has dropped to an overpressure of 5 psi, enough force to severely damage steel-reinforced commercial buildings. The damage spreads to Carnegie Hall, the Lincoln Center and the Queensboro Bridge. Gone are Grand Central Station and the Met Life Building. The Chrysler Building is gone, as are virtually all the name-recognized buildings along Park Avenue and Fifth Avenue that surround what only six seconds ago was the Waldorf Hotel. The thermal pulse kills another 30,000 people who were in direct sight of the blast, including virtually everyone on the street at the time of the blast. Some 500,000 people in this ring are dead. Another 190,000 within buildings are killed by flying debris or are crushed when the buildings collapse. Of those buildings left standing, about 5 percent burst into flames instantly; within 24 hours virtually all buildings that remain standing catch fire. A conflagration begins at city center.

The outside world has virtually no contact with New York City. Panic begins to spread around the country as people watching television or listening to radio begin to realize there is no television or radio available. The first six seconds is too short an interval for government officials in Washington, D.C., to have any real idea what has happened to New York.

10 seconds after detonation

The shock wave expands to a radius of 2.5 miles, but it still carries an impact with an overpressure of 2 psi at the periphery, enough to cause varying amounts of damage to steel-reinforced buildings. An estimated 235,000 additional people die instantly as this ring expands, with an additional 500,000 casualties as the casualty ratio begins to exceed the kill ratio. Those wearing darker clothes are more severely burned from the thermal pulse. Combustible materials instantly burst into flame. Within 24 hours all buildings that remain standing in this radius will begin to burn out of control as all water service has ceased to function.

16 seconds after detonation

The shock wave expands to a radius of 4 miles with an overpressure force of 1 psi at the edge. Steel-reinforced buildings at the periphery suffer relatively little damage, but as far south as Battery Park and the Statue of Liberty the damage is still significant. The impact is being felt across the East River into Queens and across the Hudson River into New Jersey. Buildings north of Central Park are hit by enough force to cause flying debris and severe structural damage. Now the deaths and casualties are spread across 30 square miles. There are many fewer deaths in the ring that stretches from 2.5 miles (the 10-second impact periphery) and 5 miles (the 16-second periphery). An additional 30,000 in this further extension of the blast are severely injured.

Radioactive fallout reaching across into New Jersey will begin within 24 hours to produce mild sickness for virtually everyone who was outside when the IND was detonated and many inside. The initial symptoms will be vomiting, diarrhea and fatigue. Over the next few days as many as 30 percent of the population with a 10-mile range of the blast will begin to die from a combination of burns, infection and radiation damage to tissue, bone and blood cells. The radiation effects will sweep across New Jersey for dozens of miles, with some seriously affected by radiation sickness as far away as 100 miles from ground zero.

1 hour after detonation

By now word has spread throughout the nation and the world, though the news blackout and the effect on television and radio transmission has led to panic and confusion. The president has called out the military, but there is no way to enter New York City. All tunnels and bridges connecting to New York are either gone or so seriously damaged that they are unusable.

New York City has no power, no water, no police, no fire department. No roads in Manhattan within a five-mile radius of the blast are usable. Roads from the southern tip of Manhattan to above Central Park are filled with debris. Fires are burning out of control. Many injured are trapped in buildings and unable to escape.

Very few find exits from the subways, and when they do exit they emerge into a destroyed city of chaos. There is no telephone service in New York and cell phones will not connect for service.

Pandemonium and fear spread rapidly among survivors. Military helicopters hover overhead, trying to ascertain what has happened.

LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark Airports all shut down. All aircraft heading to the New York area would be redirected to land at other destinations. The president would order all aircraft to land as quickly as possible, as the nation's commercial air traffic system is brought to an orderly and quick halt.

Thousands of families and businesses around the country who are aware of the tragedy will begin scrambling to find information about loved ones and business associates who were scheduled to be in New York City that day.

By the end of the day

More than 1.5 million people are dead in New York City and another 1.5 million severely injured. Fewer than 25 percent of the injured will survive longer than a week. The old will die first, along with the very young. Those survivors who can move around will not know what to do. Looting will break out, as will random acts of violence. Thousands will be trapped in elevators, sealed in what are about to become their tombs. Those not at home will be unable to communicate with loved ones, to find out what has happened to husbands, wives and children. For all but a few there will be no words said of "Goodbye" or "I love you."