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Topic: 'Small' Nuclear War Could Trigger Catastrophic Cooling
no photo
Sun 03/30/14 01:19 PM
Even a relatively small regional nuclear war could trigger global cooling, damage the ozone layer and cause droughts for more than a decade, researchers say.

These findings should further spur the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today, scientists added.

During the Cold War, a nuclear exchange between superpowers was feared for years. One potential consequence of such a global nuclear war was "nuclear winter," wherein nuclear explosions sparked huge fires whose smoke, dust and ash blotted out the sun, resulting in a "twilight at noon" for weeks. Much of humanity might eventually die from the resulting crop failures and starvation. [Doomsday: 9 Real Ways the Earth Could End]

Today, with the United States the only standing superpower, nuclear winter might seem a distant threat. Still, nuclear war remains a very real threat; for instance, between developing-world nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan.

To see what effects such a regional nuclear conflict might have on climate, scientists modeled a war between India and Pakistan involving 100 Hiroshima-level bombs, each packing the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT — just a small fraction of the world's current nuclear arsenal. They simulated interactions within and between the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice components of the Earth's climate system.

Scientists found the effects of such a war could be catastrophic.

"Most people would be surprised to know that even a very small regional nuclear war on the other side of the planet could disrupt global climate for at least a decade and wipe out the ozone layer for a decade," study lead author Michael Mills, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, told Live Science.

The researchers predicted the resulting firestorms would kick up about 5.5 million tons (5 million metric tons) of black carbon high into the atmosphere. This ash would absorb incoming solar heat, cooling the surface below.

The simulations hint that after such a war, global average surface temperatures would drop suddenly by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), their lowest levels in more than 1,000 years. In some places, temperatures would get significantly colder — most of North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East would experience winters that are 4.5 to 10.8 degrees F (2.5 to 6 degrees C) colder, and summers 1.8 to 7.2 degrees F (1 to 4 degrees C) cooler. The colder temperatures would lead to lethal frosts worldwide that would reduce growing seasons by 10 to 40 days annually for several years. [The Top 10 Largest Explosions Ever]

The ash that absorbed heat up in the atmosphere would also intensely heat the stratosphere, accelerating chemical reactions that destroy ozone. This would allow much greater amounts of ultraviolet radiation to reach Earth's surface, with a summertime ultraviolet increase of 30 to 80 percent in the mid-latitudes, posing a threat to human health, agriculture and ecosystems on both land and sea.

The models also suggest colder temperatures would reduce global rainfall and other forms of precipitation by up to about 10 percent. This would likely trigger widespread fires in regions such as the Amazon, and it would pump even more smoke into the atmosphere.

"All in all, these effects would be very detrimental to food production and to ecosystems," Mills said.

Previous studies had estimated that global temperatures would recover after about a decade. However, this latest work projected that cooling would persist for more than 25 years, which is about as far into the future as the simulations went. Two major factors caused this prolonged cooling — an expansion of sea ice that reflected more solar heat into space, and a significant cooling in the upper 330 feet (100 meters) of the oceans, which would warm back up only gradually.

"This is the third independent model examining the effects a regional nuclear conflict on the atmosphere and the ocean and the land, and their conclusions all support each other," Mills said. "It's interesting that every time we've approached this same question with more sophisticated models, the effects seem to be more pronounced."

mightymoe's photo
Sun 03/30/14 01:30 PM
could, might, maybe, possibly... not much science in those words....

beachdog50's photo
Sun 03/30/14 01:40 PM
I know I don't need no scientist to tell me a nuclear war would be bad for the enviorment. I think these scientists should research crap that actually matters..

no photo
Sun 03/30/14 01:42 PM
Science? We ain't got no science. We don't need no stinkin science.
tongue2

metalwing's photo
Mon 03/31/14 06:52 AM
The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).

metalwing's photo
Mon 03/31/14 07:51 AM
Here is how the volcanoes do much the same thing as an atom bomb.

"The most abundant gas typically erupted is water vapor, which has been measured to be as high as 97% of gases erupted from some volcanoes. The water has very little impact on climate because it usually rains out of the atmosphere fairly quickly. In fact, it is very common to find volcanic ash deposited that preserve rainfall splash marks.

The greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) is the second most common gas (varying from 1% to 50% in different types of eruptions). Carbon dioxide is heavier than air and commonly ponds in low-lying areas; it can poison and kill animals that breathe it. The CO2 does not significant influence climate because volcanic CO2 is only about 1% of what is released by burning of fossil fuels.

The gas that does have a noticeable climate impact is sulfur dioxide (SO2). Unlike greenhouse gases, SO2 cools the atmosphere. Magma contains a small amount of SO2, typically less than 10% by volume. Large eruptions thrust the SO2 into the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) where it is transported around the planet. Contact with abundant water changes the SO2 gas into sulfuric acid (H2SO4) droplets called aerosols. Even though they are microscopic, there are billions of such aerosols following a big eruption, so that they actually affect the climate. Each aerosol absorbs some of the radiation from the Sun, and thus heats itself and the surrounding stratosphere. But each ray of Sunlight that hits an aerosol does not strike the Earth, robbing the surface of that small amount of heat. During the 1900s there were three large eruptions that caused the entire planet to cool down by as much as 1�C. Volcanic coolings persist for only 2 to 3 years because the aerosols ultimately fall out of the stratosphere and enter the lower atmosphere where rain and wind quickly disperse them.

...
- See more at: http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/#sthash.cYruLncZ.dpuf

InvictusV's photo
Mon 03/31/14 07:55 AM

The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


There is a theory that one of the Indonesian volcanoes erupted during the 6th century and brought on the dark ages..

Possibly Krakatau..

no photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:02 AM
One more earthquake or tsunami on Fukushima could do it.

metalwing's photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:03 AM


The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


There is a theory that one of the Indonesian volcanoes erupted during the 6th century and brought on the dark ages..

Possibly Krakatau..


Yeah. I read about that. You have to take into account the mentality of the times, having the sky darken, the climate suddenly get cold, crops fail, ... a bunch of power suddenly gets shifted to the clergy.

Conrad_73's photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:24 AM
Edited by Conrad_73 on Mon 03/31/14 08:52 AM
I think Krakatoa in 1883 and earlier Eruptions gave a preview of what could happen!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

The combined effects of pyroclastic flows, volcanic ashes, and tsunamis had disastrous results in the region and world-wide. The death toll recorded by the Dutch authorities was 36,417, although some sources put the estimate at more than 120,000. There are numerous documented reports of groups of human skeletons floating across the Indian Ocean on rafts of volcanic pumice and washing up on the east coast of Africa up to a year after the eruption. Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the eruption. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.

mightymoe's photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:46 AM

The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...

no photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:56 AM


The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


scared

Conrad_73's photo
Mon 03/31/14 08:57 AM


The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


I think Krakatoa in 1883 and earlier Eruptions gave a preview of what could happen!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

The combined effects of pyroclastic flows, volcanic ashes, and tsunamis had disastrous results in the region and world-wide. The death toll recorded by the Dutch authorities was 36,417, although some sources put the estimate at more than 120,000. There are numerous documented reports of groups of human skeletons floating across the Indian Ocean on rafts of volcanic pumice and washing up on the east coast of Africa up to a year after the eruption. Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the eruption. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.

mightymoe's photo
Mon 03/31/14 09:10 AM
Edited by mightymoe on Mon 03/31/14 09:16 AM



The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


I think Krakatoa in 1883 and earlier Eruptions gave a preview of what could happen!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

The combined effects of pyroclastic flows, volcanic ashes, and tsunamis had disastrous results in the region and world-wide. The death toll recorded by the Dutch authorities was 36,417, although some sources put the estimate at more than 120,000. There are numerous documented reports of groups of human skeletons floating across the Indian Ocean on rafts of volcanic pumice and washing up on the east coast of Africa up to a year after the eruption. Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the eruption. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.


look at how powerful that eruption was... "the loudest noise ever heard on earth" ... we have nothing in bombs even close to that...
the yellowstone Super volcano, which is due at any time to erupt, will be about 100 times the Krakatoa eruption... (1/3 of the US will be buried in about 30-100 feet in ash)


no photo
Mon 03/31/14 09:21 AM

The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


Why is it that all the reports that state the problem has something to do with man always has to do with government and involves some sort of new tax but all the deniers are non government financed sources?

That would be paramount to believing the Gulf of Tonkin incident, that Sandy Hook actually happened, that the Syria government used chemical weapons and that the democratically elected government of Ukraine killed those people.

no photo
Mon 03/31/14 09:26 AM

Even a relatively small regional nuclear war could trigger global cooling, damage the ozone layer and cause droughts for more than a decade, researchers say.

These findings should further spur the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today, scientists added.

During the Cold War, a nuclear exchange between superpowers was feared for years. One potential consequence of such a global nuclear war was "nuclear winter," wherein nuclear explosions sparked huge fires whose smoke, dust and ash blotted out the sun, resulting in a "twilight at noon" for weeks. Much of humanity might eventually die from the resulting crop failures and starvation. [Doomsday: 9 Real Ways the Earth Could End]

Today, with the United States the only standing superpower, nuclear winter might seem a distant threat. Still, nuclear war remains a very real threat; for instance, between developing-world nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan.

To see what effects such a regional nuclear conflict might have on climate, scientists modeled a war between India and Pakistan involving 100 Hiroshima-level bombs, each packing the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT — just a small fraction of the world's current nuclear arsenal. They simulated interactions within and between the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice components of the Earth's climate system.

Scientists found the effects of such a war could be catastrophic.

"Most people would be surprised to know that even a very small regional nuclear war on the other side of the planet could disrupt global climate for at least a decade and wipe out the ozone layer for a decade," study lead author Michael Mills, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, told Live Science.

The researchers predicted the resulting firestorms would kick up about 5.5 million tons (5 million metric tons) of black carbon high into the atmosphere. This ash would absorb incoming solar heat, cooling the surface below.

The simulations hint that after such a war, global average surface temperatures would drop suddenly by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), their lowest levels in more than 1,000 years. In some places, temperatures would get significantly colder — most of North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East would experience winters that are 4.5 to 10.8 degrees F (2.5 to 6 degrees C) colder, and summers 1.8 to 7.2 degrees F (1 to 4 degrees C) cooler. The colder temperatures would lead to lethal frosts worldwide that would reduce growing seasons by 10 to 40 days annually for several years. [The Top 10 Largest Explosions Ever]

The ash that absorbed heat up in the atmosphere would also intensely heat the stratosphere, accelerating chemical reactions that destroy ozone. This would allow much greater amounts of ultraviolet radiation to reach Earth's surface, with a summertime ultraviolet increase of 30 to 80 percent in the mid-latitudes, posing a threat to human health, agriculture and ecosystems on both land and sea.

The models also suggest colder temperatures would reduce global rainfall and other forms of precipitation by up to about 10 percent. This would likely trigger widespread fires in regions such as the Amazon, and it would pump even more smoke into the atmosphere.

"All in all, these effects would be very detrimental to food production and to ecosystems," Mills said.

Previous studies had estimated that global temperatures would recover after about a decade. However, this latest work projected that cooling would persist for more than 25 years, which is about as far into the future as the simulations went. Two major factors caused this prolonged cooling — an expansion of sea ice that reflected more solar heat into space, and a significant cooling in the upper 330 feet (100 meters) of the oceans, which would warm back up only gradually.

"This is the third independent model examining the effects a regional nuclear conflict on the atmosphere and the ocean and the land, and their conclusions all support each other," Mills said. "It's interesting that every time we've approached this same question with more sophisticated models, the effects seem to be more pronounced."


I would dare say that at current levels of government despotism, we may stand a good chance of finding out in the very near future. Especially with Odumbo betting on New York.

metalwing's photo
Tue 04/01/14 05:42 AM


The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


Bomb testing has moved underground and almost doesn't exist anymore except for North Korea so there is no more atmospheric data to be had. However, when we and the Russians were doing open air testing, a main source of data was "fallout", i.e., how much dust, where did it go, and how long did it stay around. The data on bombs is way more accurate than volcanoes because every volcano is different.

mightymoe's photo
Tue 04/01/14 08:18 AM



The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


Bomb testing has moved underground and almost doesn't exist anymore except for North Korea so there is no more atmospheric data to be had. However, when we and the Russians were doing open air testing, a main source of data was "fallout", i.e., how much dust, where did it go, and how long did it stay around. The data on bombs is way more accurate than volcanoes because every volcano is different.


true, most volcanoes won't do much, but every know and the there's one like Krakatoa than can influence the atmosphere... and they have never set off more than one or two at a time, so i guess they can extrapolate if a dozen nukes are going...

no photo
Tue 04/01/14 08:27 AM




The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


Bomb testing has moved underground and almost doesn't exist anymore except for North Korea so there is no more atmospheric data to be had. However, when we and the Russians were doing open air testing, a main source of data was "fallout", i.e., how much dust, where did it go, and how long did it stay around. The data on bombs is way more accurate than volcanoes because every volcano is different.


true, most volcanoes won't do much, but every know and the there's one like Krakatoa than can influence the atmosphere... and they have never set off more than one or two at a time, so i guess they can extrapolate if a dozen nukes are going...


Yellowstone, were sittin on a time bomb.....

mightymoe's photo
Tue 04/01/14 08:48 AM





The reasons the models get more pronounced is that they get more accurate. Each model has more data from volcanoes, atmospheric air movement, bigger computers, etc. The original tests of atom bombs gave loading data of the amount of dust that was picked up.

One really big volcano gives a great model because it can cool the whole planet. We have several examples of this type of dust shielding from which to model.

http://spark.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

The science is not that complicated (block the Sun and the Earth cools).


yea, they test these bombs all the time, and there is at least 20 volcanoes erupting right now... the article is just a CT, trying to scare people...


Bomb testing has moved underground and almost doesn't exist anymore except for North Korea so there is no more atmospheric data to be had. However, when we and the Russians were doing open air testing, a main source of data was "fallout", i.e., how much dust, where did it go, and how long did it stay around. The data on bombs is way more accurate than volcanoes because every volcano is different.


true, most volcanoes won't do much, but every know and the there's one like Krakatoa than can influence the atmosphere... and they have never set off more than one or two at a time, so i guess they can extrapolate if a dozen nukes are going...


Yellowstone, were sittin on a time bomb.....


yea, i was watching some video's of animals running away from yellowstone... moose and bison, mostly... but animals do have a sense about these things...

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