News

Dems Regain Electoral Footing Looking Ahead to 2010
Friday 25 September 2009

by: Chris Bowers | AlterNet



(Illustration: Jared Rodriguez / t r u t h o u t)
Earlier in the week, in my first House forecast for 2010, I looked at generic congressional ballot polling from August 20th through September 17th. At that time, the most recent survey from the nine polling organizations to publish generic congressional ballots conducted entirely since August 20th showed Democrats ahead by 3.5%.

However, several generic congressional ballots have been released since that time, which cumulatively show the Democratic position improving. Here are the most recent surveys from the eight polling organizations that have published generic congressional ballots which were conducted entirely since President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress. Most of the surveys can be found at Pollster.com.

House Generic Ballot Polling, 9/10-9/24

Dem % Rep % Pollster Date Type Partisan
40.8% 35.4%
43% 30% F&M 9/21 Live Phone None
46% 35% Polimetrix 9/22 Internett None
40% 32% Selzer 9/14 Live Phone None
47% 41% GQR 9/16 Live Phone Dem
33% 27% R2000 9/24 Live Phone Dem
43% 40% NBC 9/20 Live Phone None
36% 36% OnMessage 9/10 Live Phone Rep
38% 42% Rasmussen 9/20 Automated Rep
Not only has the Democratic advantage expanded to 5.4%, up 1.9% from a few days ago, but the only two polls showing Democrats in any real trouble are both Republican outfits. The four non-partisan polls in this group show Democrats ahead by 8.8%, identical to their margin in 2008.

The tea-party is over. Since President Obama's speech on September 9th, Democrats have clearly regained their electoral footing. For all the conservative organizing around tea parties since March, Republicans have made up no ground at all in the generic congressional ballot. While Obama's approval rating has dipped, his net job approval of +7.5% is identical to his victory margin in the 2008 election. The only people Republicans have won over are people who already voted for them in 2008.

The problem Republicans face is that their members of Congress and leading spokespeople are engaging in pretty much the same behavior as their more bombastic astroturf / grassroots supporters. The image of "average citizens" yelling at powerful members of Congress plays well. The image of members of Congress engaging in the same behavior-not so much. In a sense, the lack of what Matt Stoller called a "rootsgap" in his farewell article at Open Left is keeping Republicans in a poor electoral position, while it keeps Democrats from passing good legislation. However, the Progressive Block is helping to solve that gap, and today I feel more optimistic about the short-term political future than I have in months.

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.

http://www.truthout.org/092709D


Gee, ya gotta wonder why, right? Not. LOL With all the craziness going on on the right how can they be building support.

Truthout.org is a liberally biased group of wing nuts and scoundrels.

You wish...lol

It's a fact!

Prove it...lol

I don't expect you to agree. I can believe you would think this is a moderate site; although, you wouldn't know a moderate site if it pulled your hair and went pttttt in your face.

Just because the righties are the loudest and most obnoxious doesn't mean they are making any points with anyone besides those other righties who feel the same...lol

I already said the moderates and liberals have been just quietly waiting to show the right that they will not win with all their ugliness come election time.

That site is funny thanks for posting this so I could get a good laugh

Glad you get to laugh too. I will be laughing all the way to the polls...lol

Look here's what will happen over the next 8-10 years. Nov. 2010 the republicans will gain enough control to slow BHO down, BHO will NOT gain re-election and a republican will be elected. When the people of this country finally pull their heads out of their ***** and realize the two parties that have been in control are just ****ing with us by giving us losers like Carter, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama we will see the rise of a third party that will not include liberals or conservatives. I believe this to be the truth.

Liberals have ugliness too. Like when they spout lies about people like Sarah Palin.

Okay, you have the right to your opinion, of course.

With all this ugliness coming from the right, they have fed the dems or left all the fodder they need to grow. All the hatred they spew and the down right out and out lies being told cannot do anything but make the other side stronger.

Thanks to Faux news and Rush Limbaugh, the left is stronger today then ever...lol

I am not even a liberal and I can see it.

I know you did not just say that...

as I guess that means that the country overall...is happy with Obama ?...you're kiddin' right ?...

The republicans arent being ugly. I don't recall the repubs calling Americans who believe in the 2nd amendment or christ as being terrorists, I wonder what party that little sweet heart came from? I don't recall the republican house majority leader calling protesters brown shirts either. Now this is where I expect some real wisdom from you, this is your chance to call these protesters "Racists".

There will never be 100% for anyone. People just are not that uniform.

The right hate mongering is going to come back to bite them this time and maybe every time until they learn to stop with the hatred.

according to Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx BO's approval is at 51% and falling (down 20% just since February!). I don't know why anyone is optimistic about him. The only explantation could be the same type of denial/blind partisanship that the Bushophiles had when The neocons were destroying the country and their ratings were falling.

You're again confusing distaste for policy with personal hatred. Those who oppose Obama have been specific in their reasons (except for the usual hacks who pretend to hate every democrat just to perpetuate the myth of a real difference between the two parties). A mistake that will haunt the dems in the next election cycle.

Independents have fled in droves...remember...he only got 52% of the vote...you don't think that he's lost 3% of those people ?...Independents are polling 2-1 against...he lost the white vote 56-44...he now trails it 62-38...I think what Obama has done...is figured out a way to piss EVERYONE off...in one way or another...also...I think alot of people who voted for change...sure weren't voting for this...we'll find out in 14 months...when the country had their first chance to show Clinton what they thought in 1994...he lost 8 Senate seats, and 54 house seats...also...70 house seats right now are in districts that voted for McCain and or Bush in the last two elections...they sit in Republican districts...so...there could be a blood bath in 2010...I can hardly wait...

Where did you get those stats Faux news or Limbaugh?...lol

Repubs have lost all credibility and it is going down hill fast with the teabaggers, racists, anti-government folks all joining their band wagon. Taking all the credibility from anything they say and making it hatemongering and fearmongering which only works with the uneducated folks. Smart folks figure it out real quick and end up mistrusting the party who gave them the lies to begin with.

That is what is happening.

Smart folks are discovering the misinformation and are not going to allow it to make the country into a dead zone like the hatemongers want it to be.

Remember all the problems in this country came before Obama ever got in office, ALL OF THEM!!!!